Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin may already be deep into a bear market. Based on historical cycles, macro signals, and technicals, he outlines why the top may have come in October - and what to expect if that’s the case.
Cowen’s Outlook - Key Points
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Bear markets often begin in Q4 post-halving – Previous cycles saw tops in October or December. He now gives a 60-70% chance that October 2025 was the top.
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Lack of euphoria is a red flag – Unlike past cycles, this rally lacked retail mania. The PMI is low, showing Main Street doesn't have the cash to fuel a proper bull market.
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RSI breakdown confirms weakness – The weekly RSI has broken down, usually signaling a confirmed cycle top.
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50% drop still in play – Bitcoin could revisit the 200-week EMA, possibly dropping to $60K-$70K by mid-2026.
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Bear markets take time – Based on past patterns, Cowen expects a 6–12 month downtrend, with October 2026 as a potential bottom.
Final Takeaway
If this is a true bear market, the smart money will be made by accumulating during the downturn. Cowen advises caution, patience, and awareness of where we are in the cycle.
