Rob from Digital Asset News checks in with Guy from Coin Bureau and Ben from Into the Cryptoverse on cool inflation data and why rate hikes may still be coming.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Kevin Warsh confirmed no rate hike this meeting but three FOMC members dissented wanting an immediate hike, and he explicitly ruled out forward guidance going forward
- The 2 year yield now sits above the Fed funds rate for the first time in over a year, meaning policy is technically less restrictive even though rates haven't moved
- Falling unemployment and jobless claims suggest the labor market could reheat, putting renewed pressure on wage inflation and overall inflation later this year
- Both Guy and Ben expect a rate hike is likely coming, probably around September, which could trigger the same kind of stock correction and Bitcoin bottom pattern seen in prior midterm years
Takeaway Cool inflation data today doesn't mean the Fed is out of the woods. With the neutral rate shifting and dissent already growing on the committee, a September hike remains the most likely scenario, setting up the same seasonal playbook crypto has followed all year.
