![Benjamin Cowen – S&P 500: Outlook for the Rest of 2026 [Update] (01.07.2026 Summary)](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Wef7vP6ffBM/sddefault.jpg)
Benjamin Cowen updates his S&P 500 roadmap for the rest of the year and explains why the shallow June correction was expected and what comes next.
Key Points
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The 5% June correction played out almost exactly as predicted, matching the same shallow early summer dips seen in 2018 and 2022 before a larger drop arrived later in the year
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After this correction the market typically drifts quietly higher through July and August on low volume while people are on vacation, not a strong rally, just a slow grind
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The real drop comes later, in 2018 and 2022 both saw 20% corrections starting in August or September, in 2014 it was a 10% drop starting in September, expect something in that 10 to 20% range later this year
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Trump's second term is tracking his first term almost point for point on both the S&P and the dollar, suggesting the dollar drifts higher into year end which historically acts as a headwind for stocks
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On average going back to the 1920s, midterm year stock market lows occur in late September or early October
Takeaway A quiet summer drift higher followed by a meaningful correction in August to October is still the most likely path. That reset would help calm stock market euphoria and potentially allow Bitcoin to find its market cycle bottom right on schedule.
