Benjamin Cowen says the S&P 500 is entering its usual weak window for post-election years, which could mean a pullback in late September to mid-October. That weakness, however, often lines up with Bitcoin finding its next low.
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Outlook: Expect a short-term dip, but nothing that breaks the broader uptrend. Bitcoin could bottom early during this S&P pullback.
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Seasonality: Post-election years usually see weak spots in late Q1 and again in late September–October. Cowen sees this as part of the cycle.
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Levels to watch: A 5–6% drop would put the S&P back at its bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA).
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Market signals: The Russell 2000 hitting new highs is a frothy sign-Cowen expects the S&P to cool down as smaller caps correct.
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Crypto connection: Historically, Bitcoin often leads the S&P, finding a low before equities do and then rallying out first.
Bottom line: Cowen expects near-term weakness for the S&P, but sees it as routine cycle behavior. For crypto, it could mark the moment BTC sets its base for the next leg higher.
