Benjamin Cowen explains why the stock market may already be topping, and how macro conditions are starting to turn against risk assets.
Key Highlights:
- He focuses on three drivers: labor market, inflation, and geopolitics, with oil spikes being especially important late in the cycle because they push inflation back up and stress the system.
- His main view is that we are in a late business cycle, where historically markets struggle and eventually lead into a recession.
- Stock market tops are not instant, they are a process, meaning we can still see a final move up or “sweep of the highs” before a bigger drop.
- A key signal is the S&P vs gold breakdown, which in past cycles (1973, 2008) marked major market tops.
- Even if stocks go higher short term, Cowen believes it would likely be a temporary move before further downside, not a new bull run.
- He also highlights opportunity cost, noting that stocks have already been underperforming gold, and that trend may continue.
Final takeaway
Cowen’s view is simple: the market is likely at or near a top, even if we see one last push higher.
The bigger picture suggests a late-cycle environment where risk assets struggle and downside risk increases, not the start of a new sustained rally.
