Benjamin Cowen explains that the stock market correction he expected has started, with major indices already falling around 5%, and possibly heading toward a larger 10% drop.
Key Points
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The S&P 500 is down about 5%, while the Dow and Nasdaq have fallen 7–8%, signaling a market correction.
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Market structure looks similar to 2021–2022, where indices formed a lower high before declining further.
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Cowen still expects a ~10% correction, though markets could bounce temporarily before continuing lower.
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A correction alone does not mean a recession, since labor market data like layoffs and jobless claims remain relatively stable.
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Recessions usually happen when falling asset prices trigger layoffs and economic slowdown, which hasn’t started yet.
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Midterm years historically show market weakness later in the year, especially in Q3–Q4.
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Bitcoin and other risk assets often struggle during this phase because liquidity tightens in the late business cycle.
Final Takeaway
Cowen believes the market is entering a normal correction that could reach around 10%, but whether it turns into a recession will depend on how the economy and labor market respond.
