In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains why he believes the stock market is likely heading toward a meaningful correction, even though his long-term approach to stocks remains bullish.
Key points
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Cowen stresses that he is usually a long-term stock bull and mainly invests through low-cost index funds, not short-term trading.
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Despite that, he sees a high probability of a 10–20% stock market correction, with around 10% being the most likely scenario.
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One major warning signal is the recent sharp drop in metals like silver and gold. Historically, after parabolic moves in metals reverse, risk assets such as stocks often sell off rather than receiving fresh inflows.
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He points out that the S&P 500 has broken down relative to gold, a pattern that also appeared before major stock declines in 1973 and 2008.
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Cowen highlights that stock markets often follow four-year cycles, with significant lows frequently forming during midterm years. Based on past patterns, the next major low could occur in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2026.
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He notes that 10% corrections are normal, even in healthy markets, and have happened multiple times in recent years.
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Weakness is already showing in large-cap stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix, which he sees as early signs of broader selling pressure.
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He also believes crypto often leads risk sentiment, and Bitcoin’s recent selloff could spill over into equities.
Takeaway
Cowen isn’t predicting a market crash, but he believes a 10% stock market pullback is likely and reasonable. If it happens, he views it less as a reason to panic and more as a potential opportunity, consistent with his long-term, disciplined approach to investing.
