Key Take: Bitcoin dominance will likely keep rising until the Fed ends Quantitative Tightening (QT).
Cowen remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin dominance. His stance is simple: as long as the Fed keeps tightening liquidity, capital will continue flowing out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. He believes Bitcoin offers the best risk-adjusted return in the current macro environment.
🔍 Main Outlook Points:
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BTC vs Alts: No Contest (For Now)
Altcoins keep bleeding against Bitcoin. Even when individual alts outperform short term, the broader trend favors Bitcoin, especially during macro tightening. -
Quantitative Tightening Is the Key Pivot
Cowen says he’ll reconsider his dominance thesis only after QT ends and altcoin/BTC pairs reach range lows. Neither has happened yet. -
Dominance Target: 66%+
His conservative call was 60%, but now that we’re there, he sees room for dominance to climb to 66% and beyond, especially if stablecoin dominance also increases. -
Alt Season? Not Yet
He argues alt season typically begins from a place of maximum pain. We're not there. Until alt/BTC pairs hit true lows, he’s fading the “alt season is here” crowd. -
ETH, SOL, Others: Still Weak
ETH/BTC is back to multi-year lows. SOL/BTC is following the same pattern. Cowen reminds us these moves aren't new – they’ve played out before and likely will again. -
A Sobering Reminder
Many have tried to time altcoin rallies, but sticking with Bitcoin would’ve outperformed most. His message: don’t chase noise. BTC is the safe, logical bet in this part of the cycle.
Cowen’s Bottom Line:
Bitcoin dominance is rising because capital seeks safety. Unless something major shifts (Fed policy, BTC trend break, or alt capitulation), he expects BTC to keep leading. This isn’t anti-altcoin – it’s just a recognition of where risk and opportunity stand today.
