Benjamin Cowen breaks down the Fed’s latest moves - a rate cut to 4% and plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) by December. He connects these macro changes to past cycles and argues that Bitcoin could be nearing a major top. But he also cautions: don’t assume this time is different.
Benjamin’s Outlook – Key Points
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Fed cuts rate to 4% and ends QT in December – While both actions are bullish for liquidity, Cowen emphasizes the why matters: these are risk management moves, not crisis responses.
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QT end doesn't guarantee upside – In 2019, Bitcoin topped before QT ended. Cowen says if history repeats, we may already be at or near the top.
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Bitcoin dominance remains high – Altcoins have underperformed, and liquidity continues rotating back to BTC. This could support one last BTC push.
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If no breakout by December, upside is unlikely – Cowen believes that if Bitcoin doesn't hit new all-time highs soon, the cycle top might already be in or just ahead.
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Euphoria is missing – Unlike past tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, there's been little mania. Cowen warns this cycle could fizzle out slower and more quietly.
Final Takeaway
Cowen thinks Q4 2025 may mark the cycle top, especially if Bitcoin hits $130K–$140K. Without a breakout by December, he sees a slow bleed into 2026. For now, Bitcoin remains the safest hold.
