With the US government shutdown halting fresh labor data, Benjamin Cowen looks at alternative signals and ties them to Bitcoin’s market cycle outlook.
Key Points from Benjamin Cowen
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Labor market signals
Key Highlights:-
Official unemployment data wasn’t released due to the shutdown, but the Chicago Fed estimates unemployment at 4.34%, slightly above last month’s 4.32%.
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Job openings remain steady around 7.2M, while the quits rate fell to cycle lows (1.9%) - showing people are less confident about finding new jobs.
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Layoffs remain low, which supports risk assets in the short term.
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Weak spots emerging
Key Highlights:-
ADP payroll data turned negative for the second straight month, suggesting hiring is slowing.
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Construction employment growth is flattening and could soon trend negative if momentum doesn’t recover.
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Why markets are still climbing
Key Highlights:-
Cowen explains that markets usually ignore scattered weak data unless unemployment rises across the whole country - only then do recessions trigger stronger corrections.
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For now, labor softness isn’t severe enough to derail risk-on sentiment.
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Bitcoin cycle comparisons
Key Highlights:-
The current pattern mirrors past post-election years:
Key Highlights:-
2013, 2017, and 2021 all saw an August local top, September dip, then a strong Q4 rally into the cycle top.
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2013’s rally even started during a government shutdown, similar to today.
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Cowen notes the 50-week moving average is now at $100K. A weekly close below that would signal the cycle is over, but for now BTC is above key support.
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Final Takeaway
Cowen’s outlook: despite a cooling labor market, conditions aren’t weak enough yet to break the bullish structure. History suggests Bitcoin could be setting up for another strong Q4 rally, similar to 2013, 2017, and 2021.
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