Benjamin Cowen breaks down why SpaceX's IPO is following the exact same script as Tesla's, and why a coming pullback could actually be the buying opportunity.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- SpaceX launched in June 2026, Tesla launched in June 2010, both midterm years, both run by Elon Musk, and both surged roughly 50 to 60% straight out of the gate
- After its 60% IPO surge, Tesla dropped 50% within a single month and never traded below that low again, the same pattern played out with Microsoft and Apple after their own IPO hype faded
- Not every IPO recovers, Rivian also surged 60 to 70% at launch but kept falling and eventually dropped 95%, so this pattern is not guaranteed
- Every midterm year sees a stock market correction in the second half, if that happens again this year it likely drags SpaceX down with it and sets up the real entry point
Takeaway Betting against Elon Musk has cost people a lot of money over the years. If SpaceX pulls back hard in the second half of 2026 like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple all did after their own IPOs, that drop is not a red flag, it is historically where the real opportunity begins.
