Benjamin Cowen breaks down the latest unemployment data and explains why Bitcoin might be in for a longer cooldown. Despite rising unemployment and clear signs of labor market weakness, the Fed remains reluctant to cut rates - and that’s putting pressure on crypto.
Benjamin’s Outlook – Key Points
Unemployment is rising - The U.S. rate hit 4.4%, with job openings and hiring back at 2015 levels. People are quitting less, showing fear about job security.
Fed can’t pivot yet - Inflation is ticking higher, and Powell signaled they may not cut in December. Without looser monetary policy, crypto struggles to gain traction.
Bitcoin mirrors 2019 - BTC is showing the same pattern as 2019: a soft top, followed by a drop under the 50-week moving average and likely a bounce before drifting lower.
A visit to the 200-week EMA is likely - Cowen expects BTC to fall toward $65K or lower by mid-2026, aligning with historical bear markets.
It’s the cycle, not the narrative - Cowen warns that retail keeps trying to explain this cycle with new narratives, but Bitcoin is just repeating its post-halving pattern.
Final Takeaway
Cowen expects the bear market to last until October 2026. Despite hopeful headlines, the macro environment isn’t ready to support a full crypto rebound - not yet.
Benjamin Cowen – The Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4%(24.11.2025 Summary)
