Benjamin Cowen breaks down the current US government shutdown and what it could mean for Bitcoin, stocks, and gold. Instead of headlines driving panic, he looks at past shutdowns to shape his outlook.

Key Points from Cowen

Key Highlights:

  • Bitcoin’s history with shutdowns

    Key Highlights:

    • BTC saw shutdowns in 2013 and 2018.

    • Both times, Bitcoin had short-term dips of around 20%, but that’s normal volatility.

    • Shutdowns didn’t alter the bigger trend - bull markets kept running or bear markets kept dragging.

  • S&P 500 patterns

    Key Highlights:

    • If stocks are falling into a shutdown, it often marks a bottom (2013, 2018).

    • If stocks are rising into a shutdown, it can trigger a mild correction (around 5–10%).

    • In all cases, the S&P eventually recovered once the shutdown ended.

  • Gold’s reaction

    Key Highlights:

    • Gold has often rallied through shutdowns.

    • Sometimes it stalls or dips slightly afterward, but the long-term bullish trend usually stays intact.

  • Cowen’s big takeaway

    Key Highlights:

    • Shutdowns don’t define market direction.

    • If anything, they act as short-term excuses for moves that were already set up technically.

    • For Bitcoin specifically, Cowen doesn’t see shutdowns as a major driver - BTC follows its own cycle more than Washington politics.

Final Takeaway

Benjamin Cowen’s outlook: don’t overthink shutdowns. They may add short-term volatility, but the real drivers of Bitcoin, gold, and stocks are bigger forces like market cycles and technical levels.

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