Benjamin sees the current bounce in stocks and Bitcoin as a temporary relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal. He warns that uncertainty will return in July when the 90-day tariff pause ends, and markets may retest or even break prior lows.
🧠 What He’s Watching:
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S&P 500: Bounced after a 20% drop, historically a signal for a short-term rally. But Benjamin reminds viewers that many past bear markets had similar bounces before dropping further.
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Key Chart Levels: The S&P recently bounced off a critical level (same one rejected in 2021 and 2023). If it holds, a 1998-style recovery is possible, where markets surged and retested lows before rallying.
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Yield Curve Signals: The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are flashing classic pre-recession warnings. The more the 2-year yield tests its floor, the more likely it breaks — and that break could spell economic trouble.
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Support Zone for BTC: Bitcoin above its 2024 high is a good sign, but Cowen warns that a drop below $69K would damage the current structure. That level is his line in the sand.
🧩 The "Trump Put"?
Benjamin speculates that the tariff pause may mark the “Trump Put” — a political intervention to stop markets from spiraling further. While not a guaranteed bottom, it shows where the administration might step in again.
⏳ Short-Term: Relief Bounce
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Markets rallied on the tariff pause news.
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He sees potential for another 2–3% upside.
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If it's a 1998-style pattern, we might revisit current levels by July.
⚠️ Mid-Term: High Uncertainty
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If tariffs return in full force in July, sentiment could reverse quickly.
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Without stronger economic fundamentals, this could still turn into a full-blown recession.
🧘 Strategy:
Cowen sticks to DCA (dollar-cost averaging) when risk levels are low. He emphasizes that no one can perfectly time the market, and uncertainty will remain high through summer.
Bottom Line: Benjamin sees this as a tactical bounce inside a larger uncertain structure. He’s not convinced the bottom is in but says a controlled decline or a strong retest would be a positive development — as long as it doesn’t break key support levels.
