Benjamin Cowen explains why two different cycle comparisons are both right at the same time and what it means for the rest of the year.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Structurally this is 2018, every milestone has matched almost exactly, February low, higher low in March, lower high in May, sweep in late June, and even the two green weeks followed by a red dip in mid July
- From a business cycle perspective it feels like 2019, no altcoin rotation, tight monetary policy, and a top built on apathy rather than euphoria, the key insight is that both can be true at the same time
- The fractal will likely break because Bitcoin topped in October not December, which means the final low probably arrives in late September or early October rather than year end, one to two months earlier than 2018
- Whatever gains July produces will almost certainly get handed back in August, that is what happened in both 2018 and 2022, and altcoins will bleed even harder than Bitcoin during that stretch just like they did in August and September 2018
Takeaway Being right about the bottom and actually making money are two completely different things. DCA Bitcoin through the second half of the year, stay away from altcoins, and stop trying to time the exact low because it will happen when you are not watching.
