In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains why Ethereum has “come home” again and why that’s not a bad thing. Instead of looking for a quick rebound, he argues this phase is about patience and building a base for the next real bull market.
Key points
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Cowen says Ethereum has returned to its long-term “fair value zone,” what he often calls its regression band. In past cycles, this is where ETH tends to spend time before a new bull market begins.
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Last cycle, Ethereum didn’t stay in this zone very long and quickly ran to new highs. This time, Cowen expects it to stay here much longer, likely throughout most of 2026.
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He believes this is normal and healthy. Spending time here allows the market to reset and gives long-term investors a chance to build positions without hype.
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Cowen notes that ETH often underperforms Bitcoin during late bull markets, then starts to bottom against Bitcoin only after ETH returns to this “home” zone.
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He expects Ethereum’s price against Bitcoin to eventually form a double bottom later this year, which has historically been a strong signal for the next cycle.
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Based on past cycles, Cowen sees the most likely window for that ETH/BTC bottom as late 2026, with December being his top guess, followed by September or June.
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While ETH could dip lower at some point, possibly below current levels, he doesn’t see this as a collapse, but as part of a longer basing process.
Takeaway
Cowen’s message is that Ethereum isn’t broken, it’s resetting. 2026 is about surviving the bear market and building a foundation, not chasing quick gains. If ETH spends this year consolidating, he believes it could set up a much stronger move in 2027 and beyond.
