Ethereum “Goes Home” as Market Crashes, Cowen’s Multi-Year Thesis Plays Out
After months of calling for it, Benjamin Cowen declares victory. Ethereum has finally returned to its fair-value home zone between 1,500 and 1,600 dollars. It’s a moment of validation for his long-running ETH/BTC downtrend thesis.
ETH’s Valuation Aligns With Historical Bottoms
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ETH/BTC has been in a clear downtrend since 2021.
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ETH’s USD drop mirrors 2016 and 2019 patterns, falling roughly 40 percent from the breakdown point.
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Risk metrics (0.36 to 0.38) align with historical home levels.
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ETH dominance is back to 2019 levels. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin significantly this cycle.
Macro Markets Are the Key Driver
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Stock market futures point to another leg down, potentially completing a 20 to 30 percent correction.
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Cowen references 1989 to 1990 as analogs, recessions where markets bottomed before unemployment spiked.
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Suggests we may already be near a major low, depending on how deep the macro cracks run.
Caution on QE Hopium
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While Fed QT may slow in May, Cowen warns not to expect instant altseason.
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Points to May 2024 as a similar case. QT slowed, but ETH/BTC kept falling.
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“Don’t assume just because you’re right once, you’ll be right again.”
Will ETH Drop More?
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If the stock market continues to dump, ETH may revisit the lower bounds of the regression band, possibly between 1,200 and 1,400 dollars.
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"ETH might bounce, but if it mirrors 2016, there could be one more leg down first."
Final Take: ETH is Home. What Now?
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ETH reaching fair value is a milestone, not a guarantee of upside.
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Cowen suggests long-term DCA, not aggressive buying.
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"Welcome home, Ethereum. Whether you stay here for days or weeks depends on the S&P 500."
