Benjamin Cowen sees two main ways to interpret Bitcoin’s recent price moves. One is a seasonal view, where Bitcoin often experiences a correction in January after a strong rally. The other is a macro-focused view that looks at the long end of the yield curve, such as 10-year Treasury yields. According to Benjamin, these two perspectives could both explain why Bitcoin has struggled lately.
On the seasonal side, he notes that in past post-halving cycles, Bitcoin has frequently had a pullback of around 30 percent in January. Bitcoin’s current drop from its recent high is only about 17 to 18 percent, which he argues is fairly normal. He also points out that in 2024, Bitcoin dipped below a key support level before bouncing back higher. He thinks something similar could happen now if Bitcoin can hold above 90 thousand dollars in the near term.
However, Benjamin also warns that macro pressures could drive prices down. Inflation has started ticking back up at the same time the unemployment rate has edged lower. This combination makes bond markets worry that the Federal Reserve may have cut rates too soon, fueling a rise in 10-year Treasury yields. If yields keep climbing, risk assets like Bitcoin often face more selling pressure. He recalls a similar spike in 2023, which forced Bitcoin to give back gains.
Ultimately, Benjamin suggests watching how long Bitcoin remains below 90 thousand dollars. If it spends too much time under that level, it could mirror the weaker pattern seen in past months and potentially give back more of its gains. But if Bitcoin rebounds quickly, the more optimistic seasonal scenario could play out, leading to a stronger move higher in the weeks that follow. By monitoring bond yields and key support levels, he believes investors can stay better informed about Bitcoin’s next move.
