In his latest video, Benjamin Cowen explains why the long-awaited altcoin season still hasn’t materialized this cycle, despite Bitcoin’s strong performance.
Key Points
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Altcoins Are Still Bleeding to BTC: Alt/BTC pairs have been declining since 2021. Cowen expects them to fall further to a ratio of 0.25 before any real alt season can begin.
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Retail Hasn’t Returned: Unlike 2017 and 2021, this cycle lacks retail interest. Social metrics like YouTube views and Twitter followers show weak engagement, especially outside of Bitcoin.
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Monetary Policy Matters: This cycle has played out under quantitative tightening and high interest rates. Cowen notes that similar to 2019, Bitcoin has thrived during QT while altcoins lag.
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QT Ending in December: He expects QT to end soon, which may bring a bounce in alt/BTC pairs - but not an instant alt season. He warns that real retail-driven alt rallies come later.
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BTC Dominance Still Rising: Until liquidity returns and retail shows up, Cowen believes BTC dominance will continue climbing and that Bitcoin will keep absorbing liquidity from altcoins.
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s view is clear: Bitcoin is leading this market, and altcoins won’t take off until the macro environment shifts and retail sentiment truly returns.
