Benjamin Cowen explains why this crypto cycle doesn’t feel like the last one - and says it’s because it really is different.
Key Insight:
The Advanced-Decline Index (ADI), which tracks how many top 100 coins are rising vs falling, has been trending down since 2021 - even while total market cap rises. This shows the market is being carried by just a few assets - mostly Bitcoin, and at times Ethereum.
Not Like 2020-2021:
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Back then, low interest rates and money printing pushed everything up
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Altcoins pumped together, creating a classic alt season
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This time, most altcoins are bleeding back into Bitcoin
The Rotation Trap:
Each year, different altcoins outperform briefly (Solana, XRP, etc.), but few hold those gains. Cowen calls this "altcoin rotation" - short bursts of outperformance with no long-term strength.
Takeaway:
This cycle is favoring disciplined, Bitcoin-heavy strategies. Altcoins haven't delivered durable results. Cowen’s advice: focus on preserving what you have instead of chasing risky trades.
