In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains why he believes Bitcoin is dropping and why he expects further downside. His core argument is that the market has likely already completed its cycle and is now in a typical post-peak bear phase.
Key points
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Cowen argues the Bitcoin cycle likely topped in Q4 2025, with the cycle length matching the prior two cycles almost exactly, suggesting the bull market has ended.
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He notes Bitcoin has historically peaked in Q4 of the post-election year (2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025), and sees no strong reason this cycle should behave differently.
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He rejects the idea that the bull market must continue because altcoins did not rally, pointing out a similar lack of altcoin rotation in 2019.
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The current setup resembles 2019, where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, leading to a slow, grinding decline with lower highs and lower lows.
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Cowen emphasizes global net liquidity over M2, arguing that stocks can rise while crypto falls when liquidity is not expanding.
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He warns that waiting for a rotation from gold into crypto is risky, since Bitcoin often falls harder than metals during pullbacks.
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Based on prior cycles, he suggests a roughly one-year bear market, potentially running from October 2025 to October 2026.
Takeaway
Cowen’s view is that Bitcoin is falling because the cycle has likely ended and liquidity conditions remain unfavorable. Until liquidity improves or market structure changes, he expects continued downside rather than a quick recovery.
