Nick from Coin Bureau takes a closer look at altcoin season and why many indicators are misleading. Despite excitement, he argues the coming rally will be very different from past cycles - narrower, more selective, and heavily dependent on a few catalysts.
Key Points from Nick
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Why indicators mislead
Key Highlights:-
Popular altcoin season trackers (like Total 2, Total 3) only measure top 100–125 coins.
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They ignore small caps, which makes many investors feel left behind.
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Indicators are directionally useful but far from perfect.
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Bitcoin dominance as the real signal
Key Highlights:-
Broad altcoin rallies usually happen when Bitcoin dominance (BTCD) drops into the 40–48% range.
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If history repeats, this could happen as soon as October–November, or early 2026 if the cycle extends.
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Catalysts to watch
Key Highlights:-
Spot altcoin ETF approvals (October–January).
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The Clarity Act, setting regulatory rules for most altcoins.
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SEC’s potential “innovation exemption,” temporarily legalizing almost all crypto activity in the US.
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Combined with a bullish macro backdrop (Fed cuts, weaker dollar, strong stocks), these could fuel altcoin demand.
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Why this cycle is different
Key Highlights:-
Altcoin season will be big in dollar terms, but not as broad as past ones.
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Large caps like ETH and SOL will lead, midcaps and small caps will be more selective.
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Institutional money flows mainly to large caps, while retail doesn’t have the time or focus for deep small-cap research.
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Final Takeaway
Nick’s outlook: altcoin season is coming, but don’t expect everything to pump. The gains will be concentrated in a smaller set of large and midcaps, while only the strongest small caps with clear narratives and accessibility will shine.
