Key Message:
Guy from CoinBureau breaks down Coinbase and Glassnode’s Q1 2025 report and says crypto is in a transitional phase. Short-term pressure is likely, but multiple catalysts could flip sentiment and trigger a broader rally in the second half of the year. His take: bumpy now, bullish later.
Bitcoin Still Commands Respect
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BTC Dominance Rising: Now at 63%, its highest since early 2021, as investors flee riskier altcoins and seek safety in BTC.
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Long-Term Holders Accumulating: When BTC dropped under $90K, illiquid supply rose, suggesting investors were buying dips, not panic selling.
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ETF Inflows Resilient: Despite market volatility, spot BTC ETFs saw steady inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT is now the largest BTC holder among ETFs.
Guy’s Outlook: Bitcoin continues to behave like a “safe haven” within crypto, and if the cycle is still tracking 2015–2018 (as the data suggests), we may be far from the top.
Ethereum Under Pressure, But Don’t Count It Out
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ETH in Capitulation: Q1 saw a sharp rise in ETH holders moving into losses — from just 5 million ETH to over 40 million in loss.
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Staking Losing Appeal: Yield dropped to 4%, less than what US Treasury bonds offer. This is making ETH less attractive to big investors.
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ETH ETFs Lagging: After some excitement post-Trump’s election, $100M+ in outflows hit ETH spot ETFs in Q1.
BUT…
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DeFi Recovery and Layer 2 Activity: Despite ETH's price struggles, DeFi usage is climbing, with stablecoin volume and L2 transaction counts showing strength.
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Pectra Upgrade (May 7): This major upgrade could be a turning point, improving scalability and user experience across Ethereum. If successful, Guy believes ETH could “surprise everyone.”
Guy’s Outlook: ETH looks weak now, but the fundamentals of DeFi and upcoming improvements could shift momentum fast — especially if macro conditions help.
Institutional and Macro Forces Could Flip the Script
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Spot ETF Access Could Explode: If major brokerages like Vanguard or JP Morgan loosen restrictions, we could see $400–$765B in new inflows. That’s 22x more than 2024.
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Liquidity Boost on the Horizon:
Key Highlights:-
The Fed may end QT (quantitative tightening) and restart QE if bond markets wobble.
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Fed also hinted at interest rate cuts by year-end, or sooner if economic data worsens.
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Guy notes the timing: May 7 brings both the Pectra upgrade and a key Fed meeting — a potentially explosive combo for crypto markets.
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Guy’s Outlook: Liquidity is everything. If the Fed gets dovish while Ethereum improves technically, a full-blown bull run could reignite fast.
Final Take: Bumpy Road, But Bullish Turn Ahead
Guy says the current pain is part of a transition. Bitcoin is holding up, Ethereum may be close to a recovery pivot, and macro conditions could surprise to the upside. With ETF adoption, DeFi strength, and regulatory clarity growing, the setup for late 2025 looks strong — if markets can get through the next few months.
