Why This Crypto Cycle Feels So Weird — And What Might Come Next
Coin Bureau dives deep into why this cycle feels different — but might not be that different at all. It’s all about expectations, early entries, and the missing retail herd.
1. The 4-Year Cycle Still Holds… But Timing Is Warped
✅ Historically, cycle tops come ~18 months after the halving
✅ That would place the peak around October 2025
We’re not there yet — and BTC’s chart is tracking normally. But altcoins? That’s where the chaos is.
2. No Altcoin Rotation = Market Feels Broken
In past cycles, BTC would rally, followed by ETH, then other alts.
📉 This time? BTC's pumping while ETH and most alts are still tanking
📉 Many blue-chip alts peaked in early 2024 and have only bled since
Investors expected the altseason already. It didn’t happen. And that’s why everyone thinks the cycle is off.
3. Early Investors Jumped the Gun
Most 2024 investors knew the cycle and front-ran altcoins, expecting:
→ ETF buzz to bring in retail
→ Trump’s win to bring policy hype
→ Strategic reserves to fuel demand
None of that brought a real retail wave. Meanwhile, memecoins soaked up attention — not blue-chip alts.
4. Altcoin Capitulation Is Already Happening
📉 Many investors from 2021 and early 2024 have started exiting altcoins
📉 That’s created the brutal BTC/altcoin divergence we’re seeing now
📉 Panic selling has already happened — and that’s key
This mass capitulation might be the perfect setup for a late-stage altseason when retail does arrive.
5. Blowoff Top Setup Still Intact
If retail floods in late summer — as in previous cycles — altcoins could snap back violently.
👀 If ETF access expands to alts
👀 If the Trump administration delivers major crypto wins
👀 If institutions jump in post-clarity
That could ignite the 2–3 month parabolic phase we’ve seen before.
Final Take: This cycle feels off because investors got smarter — and earlier. But the classic cycle pattern still holds. Altseason might be late, not gone. Once new buyers show up, this disconnect could flip fast
