Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and head of Maelstrom, shares his latest views on the Bitcoin cycle, macro trends, altcoins, and why he's going big on Zcash. In this wide-ranging interview, Hayes explains why he believes the 4-year cycle is over, what’s driving Bitcoin’s next phase, and how narratives are shifting in the altcoin market.
Key Points
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4-Year Cycle is Dead: Hayes argues that cycles should be based on credit creation, not fixed timeframes. This cycle, he says, is different because liquidity is expanding globally.
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Next Blow-Off Top Is Coming: He predicts a massive rally into 2027 as governments around the world print more money without raising taxes.
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Bitcoin to $999K: Hayes is sticking to his long-term target, expecting Bitcoin to surge as a response to ongoing global deficit spending.
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Gold vs Bitcoin: Sovereign nations are buying gold, not Bitcoin, to protect themselves from asset seizures like what happened with Russia. Retail investors, however, will continue to adopt Bitcoin.
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ETH > SOL: He remains bullish on Ethereum over Solana, seeing ETH as more integrated into Western finance through treasuries and tokenized assets.
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Privacy Coin Revival: Hayes is accumulating Zcash (ZEC), citing improved tech and growing concerns over surveillance. He believes ZEC could hit 10-20% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
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ENA and Hype: He still holds ENA but wants to see more buybacks. He exited Hype before the unlocks and may re-enter if the market reprices its earnings.
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DEX vs CEX: Hayes believes DEX volumes will eventually surpass CEXs, as retail traders prefer flexible and lower-fee options. But he emphasizes that DEXs offload security risks to layer 1s.
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Altcoin Season?: According to Hayes, it’s already here - you just have to understand the narrative. He points to real revenue-sharing projects like Hyperliquid as this cycle’s leaders.
Final Takeaway
Hayes sees this cycle as a liquidity-driven expansion beyond traditional 4-year models. He's positioning for a blow-off top driven by political decisions to print, not tighten. While governments buy gold, crypto natives will fuel altcoin rallies - especially in under-the-radar narratives like privacy coins and perps DEXs.
