In this video, Coin Bureau explores the theory that the current crypto cycle could extend into 2026, driven by broader macroeconomic trends rather than Bitcoin’s halving. Could the market be entering a new phase, breaking from the usual four-year rhythm?
Key Points – Extended Cycle Thesis
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Bitcoin top delayed? Historically, Bitcoin peaks follow the halving cycle, but no clear top has formed yet in Q4 2025. Raoul Pal believes the cycle may extend until mid-2026.
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ISM vs. Bitcoin correlation – Bitcoin’s cycle has closely mirrored the ISM Manufacturing Index in the past. However, this correlation has broken, with ISM remaining weak for months while crypto hasn’t peaked.
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Debt and liquidity – Global debt cycles may have stretched from 4 to 5.4 years post-COVID, which could be delaying the liquidity surge and crypto rally.
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Skeptics push back – Not all analysts agree. Some argue ISM and liquidity metrics are unreliable, and global M2 (a liquidity measure) has diverged from Bitcoin’s price.
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Macro uncertainty – The US economy isn’t in full recession, but cracks are showing. Meanwhile, liquidity could be peaking as central banks hesitate to support credit markets more aggressively.
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Final phase still ahead? Coin Bureau notes altcoins typically move last in the cycle. If the cycle plays out like before, a final parabolic push may still come in the months ahead.
Final Takeaway
Coin Bureau sees mixed signals: a possibly extended bull cycle due to delayed liquidity and macro shifts, but also signs that the market is behaving as expected—just slower. Altcoins may still rally hard in the final stage.
