Nick explores Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100K, the panic it caused, and why the quick rebound might be the start of something bigger.
Key Points
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Market panic: BTC fell from $126K to $97K, liquidating $1.7B in longs. Retail sentiment flipped to fear, while long-term holders sold over 100K BTC in October.
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Recovery spark: Despite the panic, whales bought 68K BTC during the dip, and US spot ETFs saw $240M in inflows. Smart money stepped in.
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Shutdown resolution: The biggest catalyst is macro - the US government ending its 42-day shutdown. That unlocks up to $850B in liquidity via Treasury spending.
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Why it matters: The Treasury General Account had been draining liquidity. Now, it’s expected to flood capital back into the system, potentially lifting all risk assets, including BTC.
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Key levels: $100K is now firm support. Reclaiming $110K–$112.5K (short-term holder average cost) could open the door to retest $126K ATH.
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Bearish risks: Long-term holders have sold 300K BTC since July, a sign of fatigue. ETF outflows, Fed surprises, and tax season selling are additional concerns.
Final Takeaway
Liquidity is returning, but Bitcoin still needs to prove strength. Breaking above $112.5K is the next big test for a year-end rally.
