Nicholas Merten (DataDash) is back with a big-picture reality check: while short-term trades might look tempting, don't lose sight of the broader macro downtrend. Caution is key — but there are a few setups worth watching.
1. Short-Term Relief Bounce, But Don’t Get Fooled
✅ BTC reclaiming 21- and 200-day moving averages
✅ Price holding above key levels = relief rally possible
⚠️ But this doesn’t mean a new bull run is here
Nicholas sees a window for a short-term bounce — potentially to $90K — but reminds viewers this could just be a lower high in a broader bearish trend.
2. Inflows Are Still Weak Across the Board
📉 ETF inflows have been flat since December
📉 MicroStrategy barely bought 200 BTC in the last month
⚠️ Lack of big buyers = limited fuel for sustained upside
No new ETF inflows + stalling institutional interest = signs of caution. Nicholas warns not to expect fireworks without meaningful inflows returning.
3. Altcoins Showing Early Reversal Patterns
✅ ETH down 75% vs BTC — now building a base
✅ SOL breaking above 21-day MA
✅ STX, PEPE, FET, RENDER: potential 30–50% upside trades
Nicholas sees potential for short-term altcoin rebounds, especially those outperforming the 21-day MA. Still, he says don’t get greedy — these are trades, not long-term bets.
4. Stock Market at Generational Resistance
📈 S&P 500 at trendline going back 95+ years
📉 Big tech (like NVDA) underperforming
⚠️ Risk-off macro conditions could pull crypto down with it
Markets look euphoric, but Nicholas thinks the S&P is on borrowed time. If equities turn lower, Bitcoin and crypto could follow — hard.
5. Trade the Bounce, But Respect the Trend
Nicholas emphasizes a core point:
🧠 “Markets don’t move in straight lines. Short-term rallies happen — but that doesn’t mean the macro has flipped.”
✅ Relief rally trades? Sure.
⛔️ All-in bullish bets? Not yet.
Use stop-losses. Take profits. Protect capital. And most importantly: don’t fight the broader downtrend.
Final Take
We might see a 30–50% bounce in altcoins and a run toward $90K for BTC — but don’t let short-term green candles blind you to the macro risks. Play the bounce smart, and stay focused on the long game.
