Nicholas Merten from DataDash warns that Bitcoin’s bull market may be entering a corrective phase, driven by weakening price action, institutional slowdown, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
1. Bitcoin’s Technical Weakness
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has failed to break above the 21-day moving average, signaling exhaustion.
- The 100-day MA (~$90K) is key support, but if broken, the 200-day MA (~$80K–$85K) could be next.
- Bitcoin’s diminishing returns per cycle indicate that parabolic growth phases are becoming weaker.
2. Institutional Demand Slowing
Key Highlights:
- ETF inflows have turned negative, with a net outflow of 4,000 BTC in two weeks.
- MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases have slowed, raising concerns about long-term demand.
- Without strong inflows, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain new highs.
3. The End of Predictable Bitcoin Cycles
Key Highlights:
- The impact of the Bitcoin halving is declining, as over 20M BTC are already in circulation.
- Bitcoin’s price cycles are less predictable, with more gradual uptrends and corrections instead of boom-and-bust cycles.
- Future price expansion may require government or central bank Bitcoin adoption, which is unlikely in the near term.
4. Altcoins & Retail Liquidity Concerns
Key Highlights:
- Ethereum and Solana are struggling, showing no signs of strong recovery.
- Retail traders are losing liquidity due to meme coin speculation and scams, reducing buying pressure in the broader market.
- Altcoins remain in a long-term downtrend, with no clear sign of reversal.
Final Take
Merten predicts a Bitcoin correction of 50% rather than an extreme bear market. Crypto’s cyclical nature is changing, and longer, more stable trends may replace the historic boom-bust cycles.
🔍 Bitcoin’s bull market is slowing, with weaker institutional demand and retail exhaustion. If $90K fails, watch $80K–$85K, and worst case, $50K.
