DataDash – Is This The End of Bitcoin Cycles As We Know It? (08.07.2024 Summary)

Merten argues that the traditional cycle analysis for Bitcoin may be coming to an end. He points out that Bitcoin has spent the longest period at a prior all-time high, struggling to surpass the $60,000 to $70,000 range for over four months. This behavior, he suggests, is different from previous cycles where Bitcoin quickly surpassed its previous highs.

The speaker emphasizes that while Bitcoin's finite supply still positions it well for long-term appreciation, the days of exponential returns through simple holding strategies may be over. Merten believes that the market dynamics are changing, requiring investors to adopt more active trading strategies rather than relying on passive "hodling" or dollar-cost averaging.

Merten highlights several factors contributing to this shift, including diminishing returns from halving events, weaker ETF inflows, and increased selling pressure from various sources. He suggests that Bitcoin's performance may start to align more closely with traditional equity markets like the S&P 500 in the coming years.

To navigate this new landscape, Merten advises investors to focus on momentum indicators, particularly moving averages, to guide their trading decisions. He recommends paying attention to emerging narratives in the crypto space, such as real-world assets and privacy-focused projects, as potential areas for future growth.