The Forward Guidance crew breaks down how Trump's market interventions have become so predictable that traders are now front running them, and who is actually winning from all of this.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Every time markets get close to breaking, Trump walks back a threat. The Iran peace announcement dropped at the exact moment the dollar was breaking out and yen was hitting dangerous levels, saving markets right before the SpaceX IPO
- Traders saw it coming and loaded up on downside protection, which ironically set up a violent snap back rally the moment Trump reversed course, same exact playbook as March
- The MAG7 is quietly down year to date while the rest of the Nasdaq is up 12%, because Google, Meta, and others are printing billions in new shares to fund AI spending, diluting existing shareholders
- Real wages are falling and inflation is purely energy driven, yet two rate hikes are already priced in for next year, making the asymmetric bet that those hikes never actually happen
- Bitcoin miners are selling their cheap power to AI data centers because the money is simply better right now, quietly adding consistent sell pressure to Bitcoin
Takeaway The bull market is not running on strong fundamentals. It is running on government intervention, endless deficit spending, and an AI arms race that keeps recycling money through the economy. The game works until the midterms force someone to change the playbook.
