Ivan on Tech analyzes the current market "bloodbath," noting that many popular altcoins have dropped 80–90% over the last 90 days. He warns that while a relief rally in January is possible, significant hurdles remain before a true recovery.
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The Tax Loss Harvesting Flush: The end of December is seeing heavy sell pressure as investors dump coins down 90% (e.g., Celestia, EigenLayer) to claim tax deductions. This pressure could ease in January, potentially providing some relief.
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The "Tom Lee Incentive": Ivan argues that Bitmine CEO Tom Lee is currently a "permabull" on CNBC to secure a $100 million compensation package at a shareholder meeting on January 15th. Once this is approved, Ivan expects Lee to become much more conservative and "calm" to protect the company's capital.
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The "Minus 70%" Trap: Ivan warns against buying assets just because they are down 70%. He explains that if an asset down 70% drops to minus 90%, it represents an additional 70% loss from your entry point.
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Marginal Buyers & expensive BTC: Currently, MicroStrategy and Tom Lee are the only major marginal buyers. Bitcoin is still in an "expensive range" relative to its 200-day moving average, making it unattractive for institutional money managers until it hits lower support.
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The January 15th FUD: Two major events converge on mid-January: the Tom Lee compensation vote and the MSCI decision regarding MicroStrategy's index inclusion. Ivan believes a meaningful relief rally is unlikely until this "FUD overhang" is cleared.
The Takeaway
Ivan remains "risk-off," a stance he has held since October 8th. He stresses that altcoins are in a clear bear trend (below the 50-week moving average) and warns that they will continue to face "gravity" as long as Bitcoin is not in a confirmed bull trend.
