In this episode, Ivan breaks down the current state of Bitcoin, emphasizing that we're likely in a bear trap, not the beginning of a crash. Here's the key takeaway:

Market overview

Key Highlights:

  • Bitcoin remains in a strong bull trend despite recent pullbacks.

  • Ivan outlines potential downside scenarios but labels most of them "extremely unlikely."

  • The 50-week moving average continues to act as key support. As long as Bitcoin holds above it, the bull case remains intact.

Is this pullback dangerous?

Key Highlights:

  • The current correction is minor; pullbacks are normal in uptrends.

  • There are no signs of euphoria or a blow-off top, suggesting this is a reset, not a reversal.

  • Ivan expects a quick recovery above 100K, with a potential run toward 200K to 300K by the end of the year.

Bear trap vs real breakdown

Key Highlights:

  • Only a breakdown below 88K, combined with a red "money line" and a breach of the 50-week MA, would signal deeper trouble.

  • Until that happens, Ivan believes this is a classic fake-out to shake out weak hands.

Macro commentary

Key Highlights:

  • Trump and Elizabeth Warren both advocate for removing the US debt ceiling, a move Ivan believes will lead to more money printing.

  • More liquidity from the Fed could significantly boost Bitcoin.

  • Ivan points out the market hasn’t even entered easing mode yet, meaning the real bull leg could be ahead.

Altcoins and Ethereum

Key Highlights:

  • Vitalik claims Ethereum L1 will scale 10x in a year, but Ivan expresses skepticism.

  • Critiques Ethereum’s lack of clear commitment to solving L2 fragmentation and split liquidity problems.

  • Says builders want assurances that Ethereum will remain efficient and unified.

Other topics covered

Key Highlights:

  • Solana launches a new mobile app dev kit using React Native.

  • Metaplanet becomes the 10th largest Bitcoin holder with a major buy.

  • Ivan is bullish on smaller-cap altcoins like Hyperliquid and memecoins that show strong technical setups.

  • He warns Australians about an upcoming unrealized capital gains tax and advises against building wealth in high-tax jurisdictions.

Conclusion

Key Highlights:

  • Ivan remains bullish on the market.

  • He sees the current dip as a bear trap, not a top.

  • All indicators show the cycle is still intact, and the biggest move may be coming later this year.

  • Traders should focus on strategy, ignore fear, and stay aligned with the macro picture.

Ivan On Tech – BITCOIN: LAST DIP BEFORE BIG FAT PUMP!!!!!! (my strategy) (30.05.2025 Summary)
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Ivan On Tech – BITCOIN: LAST DIP BEFORE BIG FAT PUMP!!!!!! (my strategy) (30.05.2025 Summary)