Ivan believes that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a "calm before the storm" as the market awaits the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. He anticipates significant market movements following this meeting, suggesting that interest rate cuts may be imminent.
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According to Ivan, the most likely scenario is that the Federal Reserve will either start cutting rates at this meeting or signal their intention to do so soon. He attributes this to the growing U.S. debt, which has surpassed $35 trillion. Ivan explains that high interest rates directly affect the government's ability to manage this debt, as they must issue new bonds at higher rates to pay off expiring ones.
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Ivan points out that betting markets and public sentiment are increasingly leaning towards lower interest rates in the coming months. He draws parallels to historical hyperinflation scenarios, such as in Germany's Weimar Republic, to illustrate how quickly economic situations can deteriorate when fiscal responsibility is lacking.
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Regarding the cryptocurrency market, Ivan notes that despite some volatility, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable around $66,000. He sees this as a positive sign and believes that a breakout towards the $90,000 level is the next likely step for Bitcoin.
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Ivan also discusses the changing regulatory landscape, mentioning that the SEC has recently dropped several cryptocurrencies from its list of alleged securities in the case against Binance. However, he warns that the current easing of regulatory pressure may be temporary, urging caution as the political climate could shift after the upcoming U.S. elections.
Overall, Ivan maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the importance of understanding the technology and its potential impact on the future of finance.
