Ivan is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, discussing its current trajectory as it approaches $97,000 and potentially pushing toward the $100,000 psychological barrier. Here are the key points from his analysis:
Bitcoin's Current State
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $97,000, approaching previous weekly highs of $97,800
- Ivan believes Bitcoin will soon break above $100,000, which would be a significant technical signal on the weekly timeframe
- The MACD indicator is close to flipping green, which Ivan says historically signals "explosion" price movements upward
Market Structure Analysis
Key Highlights:
- Ivan notes this bull market has been unusually "measured" compared to previous cycles
- Bitcoin has followed a pattern of brief pumps followed by extended sideways consolidation
- This pattern has extended the bull market and prevented retail FOMO
- Market engagement metrics (YouTube, Twitter) remain much lower than previous bull markets, suggesting retail investors haven't fully returned
Federal Reserve Actions
Key Highlights:
- The Fed has begun purchasing bonds ($30B in 3-year bonds, $42B in 10-year bonds)
- Ivan interprets this as "stealth QE" beginning, with the Fed injecting liquidity
- He sees Fed balance sheet expansion as "the true QE" and a signal for the next altcoin season
- He points to M2 money supply continuing to make all-time highs, which he believes Bitcoin price follows with an 86-day delay
Institutional Adoption
Key Highlights:
- New Hampshire has passed a Bitcoin strategic reserve law, becoming the first US state to officially buy Bitcoin
- Ivan emphasizes the symbolism of this happening in the home of Bretton Woods
Bitcoin vs Real Estate
Key Highlights:
- Ivan strongly argues Bitcoin is superior to real estate as an investment
- Cites Mexico's third richest man who says "real estate is an expense, Bitcoin is an investment"
- Points to Bitcoin's liquidity, portability, and resistance to government seizure
- Believes governments will increasingly tax real estate heavily as they can't effectively tax more mobile assets
Price Predictions
Key Highlights:
- Mentions Binance founder CZ's prediction that Bitcoin could reach $500K to $1M this cycle
- Ivan thinks $500K Bitcoin this year is plausible, comparing to 2017 when Bitcoin went from $2K to $20K within months
- He emphasizes we're still only in early Q2, leaving plenty of time for dramatic price increases
Ivan concludes that "the dominoes are falling" with Bitcoin pumping, the Fed printing, retail still not fully in the market, and institutional adoption increasing, suggesting the best days for Bitcoin this cycle are still ahead.
