Ivan says Bitcoin has officially flipped bullish on both the daily and weekly timeframes. But while the technical trend looks positive, he warns that the timing could be deceptive. With the four-year cycle nearing its end, this move could either lead to a new all-time high or become a classic late-cycle fakeout.
Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points
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Bull trend confirmed on daily and weekly – After weeks of hesitation, Bitcoin started a new uptrend on Friday, which could last 5–20 days
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Next test: $120K resistance – Bitcoin must break above $120K to confirm strength. Failure to do so after bullish news could signal weakness
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CME gap could cause pullback – Ivan notes an unfilled CME gap below $116K that may be closed before the next leg higher
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Santa rally setup still possible – If the Fed ends QT and signals rate cuts at the next meeting, it could trigger a major Q4 rally
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Altcoin caution still warranted – Despite a few strong performers like Zcash, Ivan is sticking with large, liquid coins due to ongoing volatility
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Zcash is the standout – Up over 600% since its weekly trend flipped in May, Zcash has remained in a bullish trend with no major corrections
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Late-cycle derisking is key – Ivan is 70% in the market and 30% out, and says the sidelined capital will stay out for the rest of the cycle
Final Takeaway
Ivan is cautiously optimistic. The bull trend is real, but this late in the cycle, traders need to be smart with risk. He’s watching for confirmation above $120K and says the next few days will reveal whether this is the start of a new leg up or just a well-timed trap before the cycle ends.
