Ivan discusses Bitcoin’s latest rejection at the 0.5 Fibonacci resistance, emphasizing the importance of maintaining bullish momentum this late in the four-year cycle. With the Fed’s rate decision looming, he sees this week as critical for Bitcoin’s next move.
Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points
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Rejected at Key Resistance – Bitcoin got rejected at the 0.5 fib level after a strong daily bull trend. Consolidation is underway.
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Q4 Must Deliver – Ivan stresses that Q4 typically brings bullish action for Bitcoin. A rollover here could break that trend.
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Fed Meeting is Critical – The Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s comments will be a key catalyst for risk assets this week.
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Macro Heat Map Still Yellow – Ivan’s macro model, based on interest rates and Fed balance sheet, shows we’re still in neutral territory. True green macro conditions (like 2020–21) could push Bitcoin to $1M by 2028.
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EU and Germany in Trouble – He predicts the EU will be forced to print massively, as Germany and France face mounting economic issues.
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MicroStrategy Rated “Stable Junk” – S&P gave MicroStrategy a junk bond rating but with a stable outlook. Ivan sees this as volatility-related, not insolvency-related.
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30% Portfolio Derisked – Ivan has taken 30% out of the market since October 8, citing four-year cycle risks. The remaining 70% stays active for upside potential.
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Altcoin Warning – He urges caution on altcoins, especially those without strong bullish trends or sufficient liquidity.
Final Takeaway
Ivan is cautiously positioned. While Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend, this rejection at resistance and the upcoming Fed decision will determine whether momentum continues or stalls. He’s not all-in or all-out, but strategically balanced to handle both outcomes in the late stage of the cycle.
