Ivan On Tech – BITCOIN: THIS WEEK WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING!!! (28.04.2025 Summary)

Bitcoin broke major resistance at $93K–$94K, confirming bullish trend.

Ivan targets $100K in the near term, citing historical breakout behavior.

Solana remains dominant in L1 activity; SUI shows early competitive strength.

Ethereum proposes 100x Layer 1 scaling but faces coordination risks.

Retail investor engagement is at multi-year lows; institutions dominate flows.

Fed balance sheet stabilization signals potential monetary easing ahead.

On-chain capital inflows are strengthening, reducing downside risk.

Technical breakout: Bitcoin reclaimed prior resistance ($93K–$94K) and turned it into support — a critical bullish structure.

Demand drivers: Institutional buying pressure (e.g., Michael Saylor) remains consistent; CZ hints at undisclosed catalysts.

Momentum forecast: Ivan projects rapid price acceleration, similar to prior breakouts after extended sideways periods.

Short-term target: $100K as the next major psychological and technical milestone.

SUI performance: Surpasses Ethereum in daily stablecoin transactions; increasing network fundamentals.

Solana strength: Continues to dominate active user metrics and decentralized application (dApp) growth.

Ethereum scaling plans: Proposed 100x gas limit upgrade (Dankrad Feist’s EIP) could dramatically improve L1 throughput — but would require broad ecosystem coordination.

Ivan's view: Solana’s execution clarity offers competitive advantage over Ethereum’s multi-year, uncertain L2 strategy.

Retail absence: YouTube views, Twitter engagement, and Google search volumes remain 70–80% lower than 2021 peaks.

Institutional dominance: ETFs, corporate treasuries, and wealth managers are the primary sources of new Bitcoin inflows.

Banking pivot: Citibank and others are launching direct crypto services — giving advisors a compliant path to allocate client capital.

Structural shift: Ivan expects continued rotation of conservative capital into crypto through regulated channels.

Fed balance sheet: Four consecutive weeks of stabilization after prolonged decline, suggesting QT (Quantitative Tightening) may have ended.

Liquidity impact: Bitcoin historically lags monetary expansion by ~12 weeks; balance sheet growth could fuel Bitcoin’s next surge.

Market context: Traditional assets (tech stocks, gold) show weakness relative to Bitcoin, further enhancing BTC’s risk/reward appeal.

Network capital flows: Willy Woo’s models show increasing Bitcoin inflows, bottoming from previous lows.

Risk model reversal: Indications that systemic downside risk is muted while bullish momentum strengthens.

Interpretation: Ivan aligns with bullish interpretations, noting divergence in analyst outlooks but trusting the capital flow trends.

Bitcoin under-allocation: Institutions and corporates are dramatically underweight BTC relative to long-term growth projections.

Adoption drivers: Mainstream acceptance (e.g., Citi, BlackRock) lowers barriers for mass capital inflow.

Comparative advantage: Bitcoin’s monetary policy and decentralized nature position it as a superior store of value over real estate and traditional bonds, especially under inflationary regimes.

Short-term: Bitcoin highly likely to reach $100K based on technical strength, liquidity trends, and lack of retail-driven mania.

Medium-term: Bitcoin positioning for further gains as macro conditions pivot toward monetary easing.

Strategic advice: Investors without Bitcoin exposure risk underperformance against inflation and asset repricing over the next 12–24 months.