Ivan says it’s not game over for the bulls just yet. Despite Bitcoin breaking below $100K and dipping under its 50-week moving average intraday, he urges caution against flipping fully bearish. A recovery is still possible - but the weekly close must confirm it.
Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points:
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Don't panic yet – Bitcoin wicked below the 50-week moving average but hasn’t closed below it. A weekly close above $102K keeps bulls in the game.
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Daily chart looks bad – Ivan bluntly calls it “kaka, not chocolata.” After closing below the October 10 liquidation wick, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.
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Big wicks = turning points – Historically, sharp downside wicks often precede major rallies - but only if bulls step in with follow-through.
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Be like water – Ivan emphasizes flexible positioning. His team de-risked between $120K and $110K and is ready to re-risk or hedge depending on how the weekly candle closes.
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ETF outflows raise red flags – Recent daily outflows hit a record $566M. Treasury companies are also starting to sell BTC, showing waning institutional appetite.
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MicroStrategy can't help for now – With its stock price down over 50%, MicroStrategy is unlikely to raise capital to buy more BTC like it did in past cycles.
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Retail still missing – Ivan notes that almost no new users are entering the market this cycle. Most activity is just money rotating among old players.
Final Takeaway:
Ivan urges balance. Yes, Bitcoin’s short-term trend is bearish, but the weekly close will determine if the bulls have one more push left. Don’t go all in or all out - stay adaptable and react to what the market actually does, not just what you fear.
