Ivan on Tech analyzes current Bitcoin price action, U.S. macroeconomic instability, and key developments in both institutional and government-level crypto adoption. He provides a market-focused overview of Bitcoin's positioning, political implications, and upcoming trends.
Key Takeaways:
1. Bitcoin Technical Outlook
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Bitcoin is consolidating around $105K–$106K, holding key weekly support levels.
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Previous resistance has now flipped to support, confirming a bullish structure.
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Pullbacks remain possible, but the longer-term trend is intact.
2. Elon Musk’s Failed Fiscal Role
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Elon Musk reportedly failed to deliver on proposed federal spending cuts.
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Internal conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant reflects broader dysfunction in U.S. economic leadership.
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This event is cited as evidence that the U.S. cannot meaningfully reduce its debt burden.
3. U.S. Dollar Unsustainable
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Ivan argues the U.S. dollar is structurally unsalvageable due to persistent deficits and political gridlock.
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No viable plan exists to reverse fiscal deterioration, increasing long-term risk for fiat.
4. Trump’s Federal Reserve Strategy
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Trump may announce his preferred future Fed chair in advance, influencing markets before Powell’s term ends in 2026.
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Markets may react more to this anticipated change than to Powell’s current policy decisions, creating a forward-looking bullish signal.
5. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal
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A bill has been introduced to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
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If passed, it would formalize Bitcoin stockpiling at the national level and could prompt other countries (e.g. BRICS nations) to follow.
6. Institutional Bitcoin Accumulation
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Metaplanet (Japan) plans to accumulate up to 210,000 BTC by 2027.
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Additional companies are announcing significant Bitcoin purchases.
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Sustained corporate demand may drive long-term price support.
7. Bitcoin Dominance & Altcoin Season
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Bitcoin dominance remains high, indicating that a full altcoin season has not yet started.
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Ivan expects altcoin momentum to follow once interest rates begin to decline.
8. Outlook on Crypto ETFs
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Memecoin-focused ETFs are likely to emerge by 2026.
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Following the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Solana and memecoins may be next in line.
9. Macroeconomic Correlation
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Historical altcoin seasons have occurred during periods of aggressive Fed easing.
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Current conditions remain relatively tight, limiting broader crypto upside until rate cuts resume.
Conclusion:
Ivan maintains a bullish long-term outlook on Bitcoin, driven by macro instability, growing institutional adoption, and upcoming political moves. He emphasizes strategic positioning ahead of potential altcoin cycles and stresses that structural issues with fiat currencies are accelerating global interest in Bitcoin.
