Ivan believes the Fed’s latest rate decision triggered a short-term bearish trend for Bitcoin. While the Fed did cut rates as expected, Jerome Powell’s comments about future cuts being uncertain caused markets to sell off. Ivan explains why the market reacted negatively and what Bitcoin needs to do next to avoid a deeper pullback.
Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points
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Rate Cut Was Already Priced In - A 25 bps cut was fully expected, so the market didn’t react positively. Instead, Powell's uncertainty about a December cut spooked traders.
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Market Needs a Surprise to Pump - Ivan stresses it’s not about whether the Fed cuts, but whether they cut more or less than expected. No surprise = no pump.
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Bitcoin Forming Lower Highs - On the daily chart, Bitcoin is now in a potential downtrend. If it doesn’t break higher soon, a retest of 106K or even 100K is likely.
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Key Levels to Watch - Bitcoin must hold 100K short-term and 96K on a weekly close to stay bullish. Closing below those levels would flip the trend bearish.
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QT Ending = Long-Term Bullish - The Fed will stop quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1, which removes a major headwind and sets the stage for future easing.
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Retail Is Still in Stocks - Ivan notes that most retail investors are currently chasing AI stocks. A true rotation into crypto could happen later, especially if Bitcoin catches up.
Final Takeaway
Ivan remains cautiously bullish, with 70% portfolio exposure still in the market. But he warns that bulls must act soon to avoid a deeper pullback. The setup for 2026 still looks strong, especially as liquidity conditions improve - but in the short term, Bitcoin needs to show strength to confirm upside momentum.
