Ivan says a Fed rate cut is coming and most short-term traders will get caught on the wrong side. He thinks policy is shifting in a way that’s very bullish for Bitcoin.
Main points
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Expect a 25 bp cut. He argues the Fed’s focus is changing to also keep long-term rates low, which likely means more bond buying and more money printing.
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More printing and lower rates = more demand for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold.
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Even if there’s volatility on the day, he’s thinking up over the next 12 months. He cites past cases where cuts near stock market highs led to solid 1-year returns.
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He warns that the first move on FOMC days often flips. Quick spikes or dumps can reverse fast and liquidate traders.
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On supply, he says Bitcoin on exchanges keeps shrinking and more coins are becoming illiquid, so buyers may have to pay up.
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October often trends strong. If September is green, he expects October to stay bullish.
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Side notes he mentions: ETF inflows, talk of US strategic reserves, and wider risk-on vibes.
Outro
His take: ignore the noise, expect chop around the announcement, and think in months, not minutes. For him, the setup favors Bitcoin.
