Ivan issues a high-alert warning for Bitcoin bulls, emphasizing the significance of the 50-week moving average and a potential breakdown toward $96K. Meanwhile, Zcash stands out with explosive gains, while most altcoins remain bearish. Ivan argues the market is entering a risk-off phase but insists that traders should follow a strategy, not fear.
Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points:
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Critical BTC Level Ahead – Bitcoin is teetering just below the 50-week moving average. If it closes below $96K, Ivan sees it as a major bearish signal and urges caution.
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Zcash in Full Bull Mode – Zcash is the only altcoin showing clear strength. Ivan highlights it has gone “absolutely berserk,” nearing $1K, and recommends following mechanical entry/exit strategies.
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Altcoins Weak and Losing Relevance – Most Layer 2 tokens and major altcoins like Solana and Ethereum are in confirmed downtrends. Ivan warns that unless they regain dominance metrics and technical levels, they remain untradeable.
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Smart Money Turning Bearish – Data from Hyperliquid shows that top-performing traders ("money printers") are now short or defensive, while retail is still overly bullish.
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Cycle Still Intact – Despite short-term weakness, Ivan defends the four-year cycle model, noting that Bitcoin’s recent decline mirrors past cycle behavior almost exactly.
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Macro and ETF Context – BlackRock’s ETF flows show mixed sentiment. Ivan believes the ETF wave is ultimately bullish but short-term market reactions are still dictated by fear and greed.
Final Takeaway:
Ivan remains cautious but not panicked. He believes Bitcoin could recover, but if price closes below $96K, a deeper correction becomes more likely. Traders should stay flexible, avoid emotional decisions, and follow defined systems to manage risk. In the long term, he’s still confident Bitcoin will reach $1M, but warns that altcoins must now prove their value against rising competition from stocks and new tech narratives.
