Ivan on Tech warns that while October has a strong track record for Bitcoin, most traders misunderstand when the gains arrive. Early October often fakes people out, with the real pump usually happening later in the month.
Key Points
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History shows patience wins - In 2023 and 2024, BTC dipped in the first half of October before rallying strongly later. Only in 2021 did it pump immediately at the start.
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Seasonal trend - When September ends green, October is also green most of the time. Historically, gains range between +10% and +50%.
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Market psychology - Many traders FOMO in with high leverage on Oct 1, get shaken out in early red days, then miss the real rally.
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Potential upside - If October returns are near the upper bound and November follows with another strong month, Bitcoin could approach 200K by year end.
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Macro note - The Fed cut odds dipped slightly, but Ivan remains bullish long-term, expecting Trump’s future Fed appointments to push massive liquidity into markets.
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Altcoin view - Big caps like BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB should lead first. Alt season could follow later in the cycle.
Final Takeaway
October is bullish on average, but the pump usually comes mid to late month. Traders who rush in early risk being shaken out. Ivan’s outlook stays optimistic, with Bitcoin possibly hitting 200K by year end if October and November align.
