Josh Olszewicz presents a cautious view on the current state of altcoins, attributing their struggles largely to broader macroeconomic factors. He explains that a strong US dollar tends to weaken risk markets, including stocks, Bitcoin, and altcoins. Historically, altcoins thrive during periods of excessive money printing and high liquidity, neither of which are happening now. This creates a challenging environment for altcoins to gain momentum.
Olszewicz emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic stability, such as quieter dollar movements and steadier yields, as prerequisites for altcoins to perform well. Current market conditions, characterized by volatility and uncertainty, are not conducive to a strong altcoin rally. BTC dominance remains high, another hurdle for altcoins. He highlights that altcoin investors should hope for BTC dominance to drop below 56%, but there is no sign of that happening yet.
Technical analysis also points to bearish trends across the altcoin market. Olszewicz notes bearish signals like TK crosses and lack of trend reversals in key charts. While some coins, like Ripple, show relative strength, most altcoins appear weak. He mentions that even promising altcoins like Ethereum and BNB lack the strong setups necessary for sustained growth in the near term.
For those considering investing, Olszewicz advises caution. He suggests waiting for clearer trends or stronger technical indicators, such as price consolidations or bullish chart patterns. He stresses the importance of managing expectations and planning for potential downside scenarios. In the current environment, altcoins are especially vulnerable to market downturns and volatility.
Ultimately, Olszewicz views the broader market as lacking the conditions needed for a bullish altcoin cycle. He advises patience, careful planning, and a readiness to act when macroeconomic and technical signals align.
