Josh Olszewicz’s full market analysis from his latest YouTube video. It covers his views on Bitcoin, altcoins, technical trends, and macro expectations heading into summer 2025. If you're trading or holding alts, this is essential reading to understand the seasonal headwinds, liquidity trends, and sentiment signals he’s tracking.

TLDR

Key Highlights:

  • Seasonal weakness expected in June–July, especially for altcoins

  • BTC has posted 8 straight green weeks, making a pullback likely

  • Bitcoin dominance is rising, making altcoins unattractive in the near term

  • Liquidity via stablecoin issuance is flatlining, hurting alt momentum

  • Q4 may bring better altcoin setups, but Josh is bearish short term

  • Avoid chasing hype coins or illiquid meme tokens at current levels

Bitcoin Rally Looks Tired

Key Highlights:

  • BTC is up 50% from the bottom and 8 weeks in a row — historically, 9 green weeks is unprecedented

  • A technical reversal could be forming; BTC may revisit support zones around $103K to $94K

  • Josh has begun closing long positions and prefers to stay liquid for now

  • He identifies trailing stop-loss zones at $106K, $103K, and $94K

  • Cautions that BTC’s downside risk ($93K) outweighs short-term upside ($120K)

Altcoins Face Seasonal and Structural Weakness

Key Highlights:

  • Alts tend to underperform when BTC pulls back — “alts get smacked 2x harder”

  • BTC dominance is rising, showing strong Bitcoin-led trends with little alt participation

  • Josh sees no compelling reason to buy or hold alts through Q3

  • Suggests that “waiting until September or Q4” offers better risk/reward for alts

  • Even bullish charts like Total2 are stretched and far from mean reversion levels

Stablecoin Liquidity Flatlines

Key Highlights:

  • Stablecoin supply growth is a key altcoin fuel, but it's stalled:

    Key Highlights:

    • USDC is flat at ~$61B

    • USDT rose slightly to ~$153B but lacks consistent new issuance

  • Without this “liquidity pipe,” altcoins struggle to gain momentum

Individual Coin Comments

ETH:

Key Highlights:

  • Chart shows possible ascending triangle or flag, but BTC pullback would kill momentum

  • ETH’s own setup looks decent, but it’s too risky to size in without BTC support

SOL & XRP:

Key Highlights:

  • Solana setup failed to break out, retraced quickly

  • XRP is stuck in a long-term range and could break down if BTC falls

Pepe, ENA, meme coins:

Key Highlights:

  • High volatility, no clear direction

  • Josh has “zero confidence” in short-term continuation

Monero (XMR):

Key Highlights:

  • Possible six-year ascending triangle, long-term bullish structure

  • But realistically could chop or pull back significantly before any breakout

Fartcoin, LINK, UNI, other small caps:

Key Highlights:

  • Too speculative and fragile if BTC retraces

  • Likely to be sold first during a risk-off move

Macro and Sentiment Observations

Key Highlights:

  • Summer seasonality and low trading volumes could trigger pullbacks and choppy price action

  • Retail traders are still chasing hype coins and meme narratives, despite low follow-through

  • Josh flags the growing trend of public companies buying BTC (e.g. GME, DJT)

    Key Highlights:

    • Warns that these firms may lack long-term conviction and could sell into future downturns

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Jesse Eckel – Why I’m Buying TINY ‘Internet Capital Markets’ Altcoins (28.05.2025 Summary)