In his recent YouTube stream, Josh Olszewicz (Carpenoctom) shared his technical analysis on the current crypto market conditions and provided insights on potential alt season timing. Here's a breakdown of his key points:
Bitcoin Outlook
Josh sees Bitcoin in a strongly bullish position after breaking out of its consolidation range. While the move happened faster than expected (not giving traders the typical smooth entry curve), the overall picture remains very positive. He notes that funding rates are still negative, meaning shorts are getting added as price rises - a contrarian indicator suggesting further upside. His potential price target derived from Fibonacci extensions is around $130K, with $110K being a key psychological level to watch.
Josh mentioned we might see a pattern of "breaking out to some stupid number and then retracing" - potentially reaching $104K before pulling back to mid-$90Ks in the May-June timeframe. However, he emphasized that "it clearly doesn't look bearish" and the market shows no strong desire to move downward.
Alt Coins & Rotation Strategy
Josh categorized various altcoins based on their technical setups, suggesting a potential rotation strategy:
Ready or Almost Ready for Breakouts:
- Solana (SOL): Looking "excellent" with a target of $195-205, showing its best technical setup since October 2024
- Pepe: Looking great and showing strong momentum
- Avalanche (AVAX): Setting up for a breakout
- MOG: Showing edge-to-edge breakout potential
- ALGO: Ready for entry in the next couple days
- STX: Looking great
Lagging But with Potential:
- Ethereum (ETH): Lagging Solana, potentially moving a week after other alts
- ENA: Looking worse than ETH currently
Josh emphasized the concept of rotation - taking profits on coins that have already made significant moves and reallocating to those still setting up. He suggested that sitting in cryptocurrencies that have already moved substantially (like SUI) might not be optimal when better opportunities exist elsewhere.
Market Insights
Josh pointed out several interesting market dynamics:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) has likely depleted their current ATM offering and may announce a new one ($21B spent with $128M remaining)
- Gold pullback is notable and potentially supportive for crypto momentum
- ETFs are seeing significant inflows, though slowing this week
- Crypto funding remains negative while Trafy BTC funding is positive - an unusual divergence
- Retail participation still appears limited
Josh is notably bullish on alt prospects, stating this "might be the best summer in Bitcoin/crypto history" though not necessarily a full "alt season" comparable to 2020-2021. The main limitation compared to previous cycles is the absence of zero interest rate policies and stimulus measures that characterized the COVID era.
His bottom line: Many altcoins are showing excellent technical setups, Bitcoin looks robustly bullish, and traders should be watching for rotation opportunities while maintaining reasonable position sizing as the market continues to evolve.
