Josh provides a deep technical and sentiment-based analysis of the current crypto and macro markets, focusing heavily on BTC, ETH, and broader altcoin trends. He emphasizes caution amid emerging bearish signals and mixed market dynamics, while maintaining long-term bullishness.
Key Takeaways:
1. Market Sentiment Turning Bearish
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BTC has printed a clear head and shoulders pattern and is showing multiple bearish fractal breaks.
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Josh expects BTC to fall below $100K, with targets between $94K–$96K, unless a strong catalyst reverses the trend.
2. ETH Shows Relative Strength
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ETH is holding up much better than most assets and looks bullish relative to alts and BTC.
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If BTC breaks lower, ETH’s support at $2,600 will be a key level to watch.
3. Altcoins Look Awful
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Most alts, especially meme coins, have completely retraced recent moves.
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Many altcoin charts show bearish formations or are underperforming even during prior BTC rallies.
4. Gold and Commodities Looking Bullish
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Gold has a potential inverted head and shoulders and is showing strength.
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Silver, platinum, and palladium are also breaking out of multi-year bottoms.
5. Macro Indicators Are Mixed
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Global liquidity is increasing, which is bullish long-term.
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However, short-term volatility (e.g., from jobs data) could pressure markets further.
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If the dollar weakens, it could support BTC — but current technicals don’t support a rally yet.
6. Technical Analysis Insights
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Josh uses the Ichimoku Cloud, fractals, and pitchforks for most of his decisions.
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He sees no reason to be long in the near term and prefers sitting in cash or considering defensive plays (like gold).
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BTC must reclaim $107K to reverse current bearish momentum.
7. On Alts and Trading Psychology
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Alts didn’t outperform even during BTC’s last 50% move — challenging the assumption they always lag and pump afterward.
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Josh critiques overtrading and the mindset of needing to always be long or short. Sometimes doing nothing is best.
8. Longer-Term Perspective
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The power-law and four-year cycle models still suggest BTC has room to run this year, especially into Q4.
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Josh's ultra-long-term BTC target remains $333K, but he’s waiting for price action to validate re-entry.
Outro:
Josh ends by stressing the importance of having a plan. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, set levels and expectations in advance. He’s currently flat, watching BTC’s technical breakdown, and looking to reallocate below $100K. The message is clear: short-term bearish, long-term cautiously bullish, and always led by the chart.
