Big Picture: Damage Control Mode
Josh warns that the aftermath of April 2nd’s shockwave is still playing out.
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Tariffs, tech wrecks, and macro fear triggered a full re-rating of risk assets
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Crypto is holding up better than stocks, but that’s not a green light: "This isn’t bullish—it’s just less bad."
“Legacy is melting. If you think the worst is over, fine, but I wouldn’t bet on it.”
Bitcoin: Hanging On By a Thread
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BTC is technically still within the inverse head and shoulders (IHS), but barely
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A daily close above $88K would shift momentum, but Josh says $92K–$93K is the real confirmation zone
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Below $80K = trouble; below $73K = next leg down
“Nothing here is a slam dunk long. The safest play? Wait and do nothing.”
Alts: Purgatory Forever?
Josh is blunt: most altcoins look terminal.
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ETH, SOL, ADA – all printing new local or multi-month lows
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“Alts don’t die fast. They bleed forever.”
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No reason to be long until BTC strength returns. Even then, only the strong will survive.
ETH Outlook: Grim
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ETH has fully retraced everything since Oct 2023
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On the path to $1,200 if momentum doesn’t reverse soon
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ETH/BTC pair continues to break down – no relative strength anywhere
Key Levels & Strategy
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BTC bullish case: reclaim $88K, then close above $92K
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BTC bearish case: lose $80K, then retest $73K or lower
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Best play right now: Don’t be a hero. No leverage, no YOLOs. Just wait.
“Momentum-based trades require... momentum. We don’t have that.”
Meme & Retail Coins: Dead Bounce at Best
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DOGE, PEPE, BONK, WIF, TRUMP – all rejected or breaking down
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Josh doesn’t expect recovery until months of sideways consolidation
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"The altcoin casino is closed until Bitcoin gets its act together."
Market Psychology: No Setup, No Trade
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Retail is still bagholding, hoping to “sell higher later”
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But there’s no catalyst, no liquidity, and no momentum
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Even “safe” names like MSTR are underperforming BTC
Final Take:
“We’re in an environment where the best move is to sit in cash or BTC, and wait for clarity. Alts are untradeable. Tech is wrecked. Bitcoin’s holding – for now – but it’s not leading. Patience is alpha.”
