📋 Josh Olszewicz – Macro Monday Recap (May 12, 2025)
🧭 Big Picture: Risk-On Remains the Theme... But It’s Slowing Down
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Crypto had a strong run since early April.
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Now we're likely entering a chop and consolidation phase.
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Josh sees no signs of major trouble, but also no high-conviction trade setups short term.
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Expect sideways action before another move — possibly in June.
🧨 Crypto Flows & Market Structure
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BTC still dominant in inflows, especially into US ETFs like IBIT.
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ETH saw slight outflows in the US, mild inflows globally.
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Most of the ETF flows are basis trades, not directional bets.
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Open interest rising, but nothing extreme.
📈 BTC Outlook
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Targets based on fibs: $138K–$160K eventually.
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Josh doesn’t expect all-time highs to break on first try.
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Now is about consolidating recent gains, not entering fresh longs.
🔍 Setup Watchlist (Few Clear Trades Right Now)
| Asset | Josh's Take |
|---|---|
| BTC | Likely to consolidate, no breakout yet |
| ETH | Weak flows, nothing compelling |
| SOL/BTC | One of the best-looking alt setups, hasn't moved yet |
| COIN | Bullish IHS pattern, still a trade idea |
| MSTR | Pulling back, "no good ideas left" here short term |
| Miners | Worth watching; some IHS setups forming (WGMI) |
“If you’re bullish ETH or alts, I’d focus on laggards in the SOL and ETH ecosystems.”
🧾 Macro View: Strong, but Under Watch
📆 This Week:
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CPI data tomorrow – expected to cool slightly
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Josh doesn’t think CPI or inflation are the Fed’s concern right now
🏦 Fed Focus = Jobs, Not Inflation
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Fed isn’t cutting unless unemployment spikes
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Current rate: 4.2% – still very low historically
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No cuts expected at June meeting unless job numbers worsen
🧮 Inflation & Liquidity
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TrueInflation remains low (~1.5%)
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CPI metrics might tick up slightly, but nothing alarming yet
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Liquidity is stable: reverse repo still has room (~$150B)
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GDP nowcast at 2% (Atlanta Fed) – not recessionary
📉 Bonds & Yields: Weak Technicals
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TLT, SHY, and other bond ETFs are breaking down
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Yields look ready to push higher
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Rising yields = headwind for risk assets eventually
“Still favors crypto and risk over bonds — but yields rising is a red flag to watch.”
💵 DXY & Rates
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Dollar reversed off lows — not great for BTC short term
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If DXY pushes above 105, risk assets may struggle
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But for now, DXY remains bearish-neutral
🏛️ Equities: Leading the Charge
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq: bullish setups, above the cloud
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VIX back below 20 – confirms risk-on tone
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Most US equity sectors are looking strong, including:
Key Highlights:-
Tech (SMH, QQQ, NVDA)
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Financials (XLF)
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Utilities (XLU)
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Transports (Lyft, Uber, Rivian)
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“If legacy keeps trending cleanly, crypto has room to run once it finishes cooling off.”
🧠 Final Take
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Crypto isn’t breaking down — just cooling off after a hot run.
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No high-conviction long entries yet, but also no big reasons to panic.
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Watching SOL/BTC, Coinbase, mining stocks, and equities as guides.
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Biggest macro threat is still unemployment rising, not inflation.
“Legacy markets look great — crypto just needs to catch its breath.”
